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West Torrens Birkalla vs Adelaide Hills Hawks — South Australia State League 1 2021

West Torrens Birkalla
West Torrens Birkalla
FT
3 – 0
Adelaide Hills Hawks
Adelaide Hills Hawks
5/8/2021South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 4Jack Smith Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

West Torrens Birkalla62%
×Draw21%
Adelaide Hills Hawks17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Torrens Birkalla
2.05
Adelaide Hills Hawks
0.98

West Torrens Birkalla creates 109% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

creates per match

West Torrens Birkalla
1.87
Adelaide Hills Hawks
1.00

allows per match

West Torrens Birkalla
0.97
Adelaide Hills Hawks
2.23

finishing

West Torrens Birkalla+0.00on par
Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Torrens Birkalla ↓

Adelaide Hills Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

West Torrens Birkalla or draw
83%
West Torrens Birkalla or Adelaide Hills Hawks
79%
Draw or Adelaide Hills Hawks
38%

Winning margin

West Torrens Birkalla wins by 2+
38%
Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

West Torrens Birkalla 1+ goals
87%
West Torrens Birkalla 2+ goals
61%
West Torrens Birkalla 3+ goals
33%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals
62%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals
26%
Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

West Torrens Birkalla (draw refunded)
78%
Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Torrens Birkalla at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Torrens Birkalla attack 1.87 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.05

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.00 + West Torrens Birkalla defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

West Torrens Birkalla scores more
62%
level
21%
Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more
17%

West Torrens Birkalla at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "West Torrens Birkalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: West Torrens Birkalla 3–0 Adelaide Hills Hawks

West Torrens Birkalla beat Adelaide Hills Hawks 3-0 in South Australia State League 1 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Jack Smith Park in Adelaide.