Adelaide Hills Hawks 1–4 West Torrens Birkalla

Adelaide Hills Hawks

FT

1 – 4

West Torrens Birkalla

8/31/2021

South Australia State League 1 · Round 15Hawks Nest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Adelaide Hills Hawks29%

×Draw23%

West Torrens Birkalla48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide Hills HawksExpected goals in this matchWest Torrens Birkalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.86

Adelaide Hills Hawks

1.40

West Torrens Birkalla

1.86

West Torrens Birkalla creates 33% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 37 away

1.18

creates per match

1.86

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks

1.18

West Torrens Birkalla

1.86

allows per match

Adelaide Hills Hawks

1.86

West Torrens Birkalla

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Hills Hawks+0.00on par

West Torrens Birkalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Hills Hawks ↓

West Torrens Birkalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Adelaide Hills Hawks or draw

52%

Adelaide Hills Hawks or West Torrens Birkalla

77%

Draw or West Torrens Birkalla

71%

Winning margin

Adelaide Hills Hawks wins by 2+

13%

West Torrens Birkalla wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Adelaide Hills Hawks 1+ goals

75%

Adelaide Hills Hawks 2+ goals

41%

Adelaide Hills Hawks 3+ goals

17%

West Torrens Birkalla 1+ goals

84%

West Torrens Birkalla 2+ goals

55%

West Torrens Birkalla 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Hills Hawks (draw refunded)

38%

West Torrens Birkalla (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Hills Hawks at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

West Torrens Birkalla away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Hills Hawks attack 1.18 + West Torrens Birkalla defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

West Torrens Birkalla attack 1.86 + Adelaide Hills Hawks defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adelaide Hills Hawks scores more

29%

level

23%

West Torrens Birkalla scores more

48%

West Torrens Birkalla at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "West Torrens Birkalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff