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West Ham W vs Bristol City W — FA WSL 2018

West Ham W
West Ham W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol City W
Bristol City W
2/7/2021FA WSLFA WSL · Round 9Chigwell Construction Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

West Ham W54%
×Draw21%
Bristol City W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham W
2.12
Bristol City W
1.38

West Ham W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 40 away

creates per match

West Ham W
1.14
Bristol City W
1.02

allows per match

West Ham W
1.73
Bristol City W
3.10

finishing

West Ham W+0.00on par
Bristol City W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham W ↓

Bristol City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

West Ham W or draw
75%
West Ham W or Bristol City W
79%
Draw or Bristol City W
46%

Winning margin

West Ham W wins by 2+
32%
Bristol City W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

West Ham W 1+ goals
88%
West Ham W 2+ goals
62%
West Ham W 3+ goals
35%
Bristol City W 1+ goals
75%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
40%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

West Ham W (draw refunded)
69%
Bristol City W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 83 matches

Bristol City W away — creates 1.02, concedes 3.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham W attack 1.14 + Bristol City W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.12

Bristol City W attack 1.02 + West Ham W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

West Ham W scores more
54%
level
21%
Bristol City W scores more
25%

West Ham W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "West Ham W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: West Ham W 1–1 Bristol City W

West Ham W and Bristol City W drew 1-1 in FA WSL on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Chigwell Construction Stadium in Dagenham, Essex.