Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bristol City W vs West Ham W — FA WSL 2018

Bristol City W
Bristol City W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
West Ham W
West Ham W
12/13/2020FA WSLFA WSL · Round 6Twerton Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bristol City W30%
×Draw23%
West Ham W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City W
1.35
West Ham W
1.74

West Ham W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 83 away

creates per match

Bristol City W
0.61
West Ham W
1.11

allows per match

Bristol City W
2.37
West Ham W
2.10

finishing

Bristol City W+0.00on par
West Ham W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City W ↓

West Ham W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bristol City W or draw
53%
Bristol City W or West Ham W
77%
Draw or West Ham W
70%

Winning margin

Bristol City W wins by 2+
13%
West Ham W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Bristol City W 1+ goals
74%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
39%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
15%
West Ham W 1+ goals
82%
West Ham W 2+ goals
52%
West Ham W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bristol City W (draw refunded)
39%
West Ham W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City W at home — creates 0.61, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

West Ham W away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City W attack 0.61 + West Ham W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

West Ham W attack 1.11 + Bristol City W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bristol City W scores more
30%
level
23%
West Ham W scores more
47%

West Ham W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "West Ham W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Bristol City W 0–4 West Ham W

West Ham W beat Bristol City W 4-0 in FA WSL on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Twerton Park Stadium in Bath, Somerset.