Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

West Ham W vs Aston Villa W — FA WSL 2018

West Ham W
West Ham W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
5/4/2025FA WSLFA WSL · Round 21Chigwell Construction Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

West Ham W37%
×Draw24%
Aston Villa W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham W
1.48
Aston Villa W
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 66 away

creates per match

West Ham W
1.14
Aston Villa W
1.27

allows per match

West Ham W
1.73
Aston Villa W
1.82

finishing

West Ham W+0.00on par
Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham W ↓

Aston Villa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

West Ham W or draw
62%
West Ham W or Aston Villa W
76%
Draw or Aston Villa W
63%

Winning margin

West Ham W wins by 2+
18%
Aston Villa W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

West Ham W 1+ goals
77%
West Ham W 2+ goals
43%
West Ham W 3+ goals
19%
Aston Villa W 1+ goals
78%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
44%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

West Ham W (draw refunded)
49%
Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 83 matches

Aston Villa W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham W attack 1.14 + Aston Villa W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Aston Villa W attack 1.27 + West Ham W defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

West Ham W scores more
37%
level
24%
Aston Villa W scores more
38%

Aston Villa W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: West Ham W 2–3 Aston Villa W

Aston Villa W beat West Ham W 3-2 in FA WSL on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Chigwell Construction Stadium in Dagenham, Essex.