Aston Villa W 1–1 West Ham W: Result & Stats

Aston Villa W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

West Ham W

4/28/2024

FA WSL · Round 20Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Aston Villa W39%

×Draw23%

West Ham W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston Villa WExpected goals in this matchWest Ham W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.60

Aston Villa W

1.65

West Ham W

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 82 away

1.18

creates per match

1.09

2.11

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Aston Villa W

1.18

West Ham W

1.09

allows per match

Aston Villa W

2.11

West Ham W

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aston Villa W+0.00on par

West Ham W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa W ↓

West Ham W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Aston Villa W or draw

63%

Aston Villa W or West Ham W

77%

Draw or West Ham W

61%

Winning margin

Aston Villa W wins by 2+

20%

West Ham W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Aston Villa W 1+ goals

81%

Aston Villa W 2+ goals

49%

Aston Villa W 3+ goals

23%

West Ham W 1+ goals

80%

West Ham W 2+ goals

47%

West Ham W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)

51%

West Ham W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa W at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

West Ham W away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.11 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa W attack 1.18 + West Ham W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

West Ham W attack 1.09 + Aston Villa W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aston Villa W scores more

39%

level

23%

West Ham W scores more

37%

Aston Villa W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff