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West Ham vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tottenham
Tottenham
K. Zouma 19'
B. Johnson 5'
4/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

West Ham40%
×Draw27%
Tottenham33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.35
Tottenham
1.21

West Ham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.29
Tottenham
1.06

allows per match

West Ham
1.36
Tottenham
1.42

finishing

West Ham+0.06on par
Tottenham+0.31scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Tottenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
67%
West Ham or Tottenham
73%
Draw or Tottenham
60%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
18%
Tottenham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
74%
West Ham 2+ goals
39%
West Ham 3+ goals
15%
Tottenham 1+ goals
70%
Tottenham 2+ goals
34%
Tottenham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
54%
Tottenham (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 23 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.42 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.29 + Tottenham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tottenham attack 1.06 + West Ham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

West Ham scores more
40%
level
27%
Tottenham scores more
33%

West Ham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
D. UdogieTottenhamTottenham · D
7.7

Match Events

5'
B. Johnson↳ T. Werner
19'
K. Zouma↳ J. Bowen
44'
Micky van de Ven
53'
Michail Antonio
61'
Rodrigo Bentancur
70'
D. Kulusevski← J. Maddison
70'
P. Sarr← R. Bentancur
74'
Brennan Johnson
82'
Richarlison← T. Werner
82'
P. Højbjerg← Y. Bissouma
89'
Cristian Romero
90'
G. Lo Celso← B. Johnson

Possession

32%West

Shots

11West

Pass accuracy

47%West

Statistics

WestTottenham
Overview
32%Possession68%
11Total Shots13
1.49Expected Goals (xG)0.96
9Corners5
13Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots13
4On Target4
4Off Target5
3Blocked4
7Inside Box10
4Outside Box3
Passing
32%Possession68%
302Total Passes662
238Accurate Passes590
79%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls9
1Yellow Cards4
3Offsides1

Premier League: West Ham 1–1 Tottenham

West Ham and Tottenham drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 2, 2024.

Goals: B. Johnson (5'), K. Zouma (19').

Tottenham controlled possession (68%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.