Tottenham 1–2 West Ham: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

West Ham

C. Romero 64'

C. Wilson 90'

C. Summerville 15'

1/17/2026

Premier League · Round 22Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Tottenham48%

×Draw24%

West Ham28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.19

Tottenham

1.64

West Ham

1.19

Tottenham creates 38% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 31 away

1.47

creates per match

1.07

1.30

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

West Ham

1.07

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

West Ham

1.81

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

West Ham-0.07on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

72%

Tottenham or West Ham

76%

Draw or West Ham

52%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

25%

West Ham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

81%

Tottenham 2+ goals

49%

Tottenham 3+ goals

23%

West Ham 1+ goals

70%

West Ham 2+ goals

33%

West Ham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

63%

West Ham (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + West Ham defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.64

West Ham attack 1.07 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tottenham scores more

48%

level

24%

West Ham scores more

28%

Tottenham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Valentín Castellanos

15'

C. Summerville↳ M. Fernandes

19'

19'

39'

45+1'

46'

52'

57'

62'

64'

72'

78'

79'

90'

L. Bergvall← W. Odobert

90+1'

C. Wilson← T. Castellanos

90+6'

M. Kilman← M. Fernandes

90'

C. Wilson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamWest

Overview

62%Possession38%

21Total Shots17

1.68Expected Goals (xG)2.69

11Corners5

12Fouls17

Shots

21Total Shots17

6On Target4

11Off Target6

4Blocked7

15Inside Box17

6Outside Box0

Passing

62%Possession38%

482Total Passes302

400Accurate Passes228

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

0.83Goals Prevented0.83

Discipline

12Fouls17

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1