West Ham 2–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sheffield Utd

T. Souček 37'

J. Bowen 24'

9/30/2023

Premier League · Round 7London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

West Ham50%

×Draw25%

Sheffield Utd24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

West Ham

1.56

Sheffield Utd

1.00

West Ham creates 56% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 41 away

1.46

creates per match

0.56

1.44

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

West Ham

1.46

Sheffield Utd

0.56

allows per match

West Ham

1.44

Sheffield Utd

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Ham+0.00on par

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

76%

West Ham or Sheffield Utd

75%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

50%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

26%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

79%

West Ham 2+ goals

46%

West Ham 3+ goals

21%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

63%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

26%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

67%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.44 · 202 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.46 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sheffield Utd attack 0.56 + West Ham defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

West Ham scores more

50%

level

25%

Sheffield Utd scores more

24%

West Ham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Ward-Prowse

West Ham · M

8.6

Match Events

24'

J. Bowen↳ V. Coufal

32'

James McAtee

37'

T. Souček↳ M. Antonio

40'

Edson Álvarez

56'

C. Basham← J. Egan

70'

T. Davies← J. McAtee

72'

S. Benrahma← E. Álvarez

72'

M. Kudus← M. Antonio

79'

A. Ben Slimane← G. Hamer

79'

A. Trusty← J. Bogle

79'

R. Brewster← C. Archer

90+3'

K. Mavropanos← Lucas Paquetá

90+3'

Pablo Fornals← J. Bowen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestSheffield

Overview

52%Possession48%

20Total Shots16

2.14Expected Goals (xG)1.07

7Corners4

6Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots16

9On Target2

8Off Target6

3Blocked8

17Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

494Total Passes441

424Accurate Passes364

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3