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Sheffield Utd vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
West Ham
West Ham
1/10/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sheffield Utd39%
×Draw27%
West Ham34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.30
West Ham
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 198 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.00
West Ham
1.21

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
1.20
West Ham
1.60

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par
West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
66%
Sheffield Utd or West Ham
73%
Draw or West Ham
61%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
17%
West Ham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
73%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
37%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
14%
West Ham 1+ goals
70%
West Ham 2+ goals
34%
West Ham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
53%
West Ham (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 41 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 198 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.00 + West Ham defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

West Ham attack 1.21 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
39%
level
27%
West Ham scores more
34%

Sheffield Utd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sheffield Utd 1–0 West Ham

Sheffield Utd beat West Ham 1-0 in Premier League on January 10, 2020.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.