West Ham 3–1 Newcastle: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Newcastle

T. Soucek 90'

S. Botman 45' (OG)

Lucas Paqueta 35'

J. Murphy 4'

11/2/2025

Premier League · Round 10London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

West Ham37%

×Draw26%

Newcastle37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.30

West Ham

1.29

Newcastle

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 23 away

1.39

creates per match

1.23

1.38

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

West Ham

1.39

Newcastle

1.23

allows per match

West Ham

1.38

Newcastle

1.19

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par

Newcastle-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

63%

West Ham or Newcastle

74%

Draw or Newcastle

63%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

16%

Newcastle wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

72%

West Ham 2+ goals

37%

West Ham 3+ goals

14%

Newcastle 1+ goals

73%

Newcastle 2+ goals

37%

Newcastle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

50%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.38 · 33 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.39 + Newcastle defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Newcastle attack 1.23 + West Ham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

West Ham scores more

37%

level

26%

Newcastle scores more

37%

West Ham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. Murphy↳ Bruno Guimaraes

13'

Jarrod BowenPenalty cancelled

30'

Bruno Guimarães

35'

Lucas Paqueta↳ M. Fernandes

45'

S. BotmanOwn goal

46'

J. Ramsey← A. Gordon

46'

F. Schar← E. Krafth

46'

W. Osula← N. Woltemade

61'

T. Soucek← C. Wilson

65'

H. Barnes← S. Botman

77'

A. Elanga← J. Murphy

79'

K. Walker-Peters← C. Summerville

85'

90+6'

90+6'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestNewcastle

Overview

37%Possession63%

15Total Shots12

1.75Expected Goals (xG)0.52

7Corners6

5Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots12

9On Target4

3Off Target6

3Blocked2

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

320Total Passes545

245Accurate Passes467

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

-1.07Goals Prevented-1.07

Discipline

5Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0

Match Recap: West Ham vs Newcastle

West Ham beat Newcastle 3-1 in Premier League on November 2, 2025.

Goals: J. Murphy (4'), Lucas Paqueta (35'), S. Botman (45' o.g.), T. Soucek (90').

Newcastle controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.

West Ham vs Newcastle — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: West Ham vs Newcastle