Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Newcastle vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
West Ham
West Ham
C. Wilson 3'
Lucas Paquetá 32'
2/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Newcastle52%
×Draw23%
West Ham26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle
1.88
West Ham
1.27

Newcastle creates 48% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

creates per match

Newcastle
2.04
West Ham
1.09

allows per match

Newcastle
1.44
West Ham
1.71

finishing

Newcastle+0.09on par
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw
74%
Newcastle or West Ham
77%
Draw or West Ham
48%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+
29%
West Ham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals
85%
Newcastle 2+ goals
56%
Newcastle 3+ goals
29%
West Ham 1+ goals
72%
West Ham 2+ goals
36%
West Ham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)
67%
West Ham (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.44 · 23 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 2.04 + West Ham defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.88

West Ham attack 1.09 + Newcastle defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Newcastle scores more
52%
level
23%
West Ham scores more
26%

Newcastle at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
K. TrippierNewcastleNewcastle · D
7.7

Match Events

2'
Joe WillockGoal cancelled
3'
C. Wilson↳ S. Longstaff
32'
Lucas Paquetá
45'
Joe Willock
46'
B. Johnson← T. Kehrer
57'
Joelinton
69'
A. Gordon← A. Saint-Maximin
74'
Pablo Fornals← S. Benrahma
74'
T. Souček← Lucas Paquetá
81'
E. Anderson← J. Willock
81'
J. Murphy← M. Almirón
81'
D. Ings← M. Antonio
90+1'
Nayef Aguerd
90+2'
F. Downes← V. Coufal

Possession

63%Newcastle

Shots

8Newcastle

Pass accuracy

54%Newcastle

Statistics

NewcastleWest
Overview
63%Possession37%
8Total Shots10
1.01Expected Goals (xG)1.01
4Corners2
11Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots10
2On Target1
3Off Target5
3Blocked4
7Inside Box6
1Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
557Total Passes329
449Accurate Passes227
81%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Newcastle vs West Ham

Newcastle and West Ham drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 4, 2023.

Goals: C. Wilson (3'), Lucas Paquetá (32').

Newcastle controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.