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West Ham vs Newcastle — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Newcastle
Newcastle
A. Ayew 69'
M. Arnautović 6'
C. Atsu 61'
M. Diamé 53'
H. Saivet 10'
12/23/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

West Ham35%
×Draw26%
Newcastle39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.29
Newcastle
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 28 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.38
Newcastle
1.24

allows per match

West Ham
1.51
Newcastle
1.20

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par
Newcastle-0.35scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Newcastle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
61%
West Ham or Newcastle
74%
Draw or Newcastle
65%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
15%
Newcastle wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
72%
West Ham 2+ goals
37%
West Ham 3+ goals
14%
Newcastle 1+ goals
75%
Newcastle 2+ goals
40%
Newcastle 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
47%
Newcastle (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Newcastle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Newcastle attack 1.24 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

West Ham scores more
35%
level
26%
Newcastle scores more
39%

Newcastle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
C. AtsuNewcastleNewcastle · M
7.9

Match Events

6'
M. Arnautović
10'
H. Saivet
53'
M. Diamé↳ C. Atsu
59'
A. Carroll← M. Antonio
61'
C. Atsu↳ Joselu
67'
Christian Atsu
69'
A. Ayew
76'
Ayoze Pérez← D. Gayle
77'
Cheikhou Kouyaté
79'
Javier Hernández← A. Ayew
84'
C. Mbemba← H. Saivet
90+1'
Jacob Murphy← C. Atsu

Possession

63%West

Shots

19West

Pass accuracy

55%West

Statistics

WestNewcastle
Overview
63%Possession37%
19Total Shots11
6Corners3
9Fouls12
Shots
19Total Shots11
6On Target4
5Off Target5
8Blocked2
9Inside Box5
10Outside Box6
Passing
63%Possession37%
426Total Passes249
329Accurate Passes155
77%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides0

Premier League: West Ham 2–3 Newcastle

Newcastle beat West Ham 3-2 in Premier League on December 23, 2017.

Goals: M. Arnautović (6'), H. Saivet (10'), M. Diamé (53'), C. Atsu (61'), A. Ayew (69').

West Ham controlled possession (63%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.