West Ham 1–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Middlesbrough

D. Payet 57'

C. Stuani 51'

10/1/2016

Premier League · Round 7London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

West Ham50%

×Draw26%

Middlesbrough25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.99

West Ham

1.52

Middlesbrough

0.99

West Ham creates 54% more chances

Season form · 201 home / 19 away

1.45

creates per match

0.53

1.45

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

West Ham

1.45

Middlesbrough

0.53

allows per match

West Ham

1.45

Middlesbrough

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Ham+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

75%

West Ham or Middlesbrough

74%

Draw or Middlesbrough

50%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

25%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

78%

West Ham 2+ goals

45%

West Ham 3+ goals

20%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

63%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

26%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

67%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 201 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.45 + Middlesbrough defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Middlesbrough attack 0.53 + West Ham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

West Ham scores more

50%

level

26%

Middlesbrough scores more

25%

West Ham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Payet

West Ham · F

8.4

Match Events

7'

Arbeloa← S. Byram

11'

Pedro Obiang

46'

S. Zaza← G. Töre

51'

C. Stuani↳ V. Fischer

57'

D. Payet↳ W. Reid

59'

G. Ramírez← V. Fischer

62'

Marten de Roon

68'

Álvaro Negredo← J. Rhodes

73'

80'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestMiddlesbrough

Overview

40%Possession60%

19Total Shots9

4Corners5

13Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots9

2On Target3

11Off Target4

6Blocked2

10Inside Box7

9Outside Box2

Passing

40%Possession60%

327Total Passes482

246Accurate Passes384

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

5Offsides2