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Middlesbrough vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
West Ham
West Ham
C. Stuani 27'
J. Calleri 90+4'
A. Carroll 43', 9'
1/21/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Riverside

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Middlesbrough37%
×Draw27%
West Ham35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.25
West Ham
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 198 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
0.89
West Ham
1.21

allows per match

Middlesbrough
1.21
West Ham
1.60

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par
West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
65%
Middlesbrough or West Ham
73%
Draw or West Ham
63%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
16%
West Ham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
71%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
36%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
13%
West Ham 1+ goals
70%
West Ham 2+ goals
34%
West Ham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
51%
West Ham (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 198 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 0.89 + West Ham defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.25

West Ham attack 1.21 + Middlesbrough defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
37%
level
27%
West Ham scores more
35%

Middlesbrough at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
A. CarrollWest HamWest Ham · F
8.5

Match Events

6'
Manuel Lanzini
9'
A. Carroll↳ M. Lanzini
27'
C. Stuani↳ C. Chambers
43'
A. Carroll
54'
E. Fernandes← M. Noble
67'
J. Calleri← A. Carroll
80'
Ben Gibson
80'
P. Bamford← C. Stuani
83'
Bernardo Espinosa
83'
R. Gestede← A. Forshaw
83'
J. Collins← S. Feghouli
90+4'
J. Calleri↳ M. Lanzini

Possession

61%Middlesbrough

Shots

11Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

52%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughWest
Overview
61%Possession39%
11Total Shots13
7Corners5
7Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots13
2On Target5
5Off Target5
4Blocked3
7Inside Box9
4Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
529Total Passes338
426Accurate Passes255
81%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Premier League: Middlesbrough 1–3 West Ham

West Ham beat Middlesbrough 3-1 in Premier League on January 21, 2017.

Goals: A. Carroll (9', 43'), C. Stuani (27'), J. Calleri (90+4').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Riverside in Middlesbrough.