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West Ham vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Manchester City
Manchester City
J. Bowen 45', 24'
V. Coufal 69' (OG)
J. Grealish 49'
5/15/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 37London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

West Ham33%
×Draw25%
Manchester City43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.35
Manchester City
1.57

Manchester City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.39
Manchester City
1.76

allows per match

West Ham
1.38
Manchester City
1.32

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par
Manchester City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Manchester City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
57%
West Ham or Manchester City
75%
Draw or Manchester City
67%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
15%
Manchester City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
74%
West Ham 2+ goals
39%
West Ham 3+ goals
15%
Manchester City 1+ goals
79%
Manchester City 2+ goals
46%
Manchester City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
44%
Manchester City (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.38 · 33 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.39 + Manchester City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Manchester City attack 1.76 + West Ham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

West Ham scores more
33%
level
25%
Manchester City scores more
43%

Manchester City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. BowenWest HamWest Ham · M
8.5

Match Events

24'
J. Bowen↳ Pablo Fornals
32'
Jarrod Bowen
45'
J. Bowen↳ M. Antonio
49'
J. Grealish↳ Rodri
58'
Vladimír Coufal
60'
Łukasz Fabiański
69'
V. CoufalOwn goal
77'
M. Noble← M. Lanzini
84'
Gabriel JesusPenalty awarded
90+4'
Gabriel Jesus
90+2'
B. Johnson← Pablo Fornals
90+5'
A. Yarmolenko← M. Antonio

Possession

22%West

Shots

6West

Pass accuracy

42%West

Statistics

WestManchester
Overview
22%Possession78%
6Total Shots31
4Corners9
9Fouls5
Shots
6Total Shots31
2On Target8
3Off Target10
1Blocked13
5Inside Box18
1Outside Box13
Passing
22%Possession78%
189Total Passes696
123Accurate Passes634
65%Pass Accuracy91%
Goalkeeping
7Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls5
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Premier League: West Ham 2–2 Manchester City

West Ham and Manchester City drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 15, 2022.

Goals: J. Bowen (24', 45'), J. Grealish (49'), V. Coufal (69' o.g.).

Manchester City controlled possession (78%) and registered 31 shots to 6.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.