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Manchester City vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
West Ham
West Ham
P. Foden 85'
E. Haaland 70'
N. Aké 49'
5/3/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Manchester City58%
×Draw22%
West Ham20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
1.95
West Ham
1.04

Manchester City creates 88% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.08
West Ham
1.07

allows per match

Manchester City
1.01
West Ham
1.81

finishing

Manchester City+0.29scores more
West Ham-0.07on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
80%
Manchester City or West Ham
78%
Draw or West Ham
42%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
35%
West Ham wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
86%
Manchester City 2+ goals
58%
Manchester City 3+ goals
31%
West Ham 1+ goals
65%
West Ham 2+ goals
28%
West Ham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
75%
West Ham (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.01 · 30 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.08 + West Ham defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.95

West Ham attack 1.07 + Manchester City defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Manchester City scores more
58%
level
22%
West Ham scores more
20%

Manchester City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. GrealishManchester CityManchester City · F
8.3

Match Events

49'
Flynn Downes
49'
N. Aké↳ R. Mahrez
61'
B. Johnson← V. Coufal
67'
D. Ings← M. Antonio
70'
E. Haaland↳ J. Grealish
76'
M. Akanji← N. Aké
77'
P. Foden← J. Álvarez
79'
S. Benrahma← J. Bowen
85'
P. Foden
90+1'
K. Phillips← Rodri

Possession

69%Manchester

Shots

16Manchester

Pass accuracy

54%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterWest
Overview
69%Possession31%
16Total Shots6
2.30Expected Goals (xG)0.43
6Corners3
8Fouls8
Shots
16Total Shots6
7On Target2
7Off Target3
2Blocked1
10Inside Box3
6Outside Box3
Passing
69%Possession31%
723Total Passes327
656Accurate Passes255
91%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Manchester City vs West Ham

Manchester City beat West Ham 3-0 in Premier League on May 3, 2023.

Goals: N. Aké (49'), E. Haaland (70'), P. Foden (85').

Manchester City controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.