West Ham 1–3 Liverpool: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Liverpool

C. Dawson 87'

G. Wijnaldum 84'

Mohamed Salah 68', 57'

1/31/2021

Premier League · Round 21London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

West Ham33%

×Draw25%

Liverpool42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.56

West Ham

1.35

Liverpool

1.56

Liverpool creates 16% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 32 away

1.38

creates per match

1.61

1.51

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

West Ham

1.38

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

West Ham

1.51

Liverpool

1.32

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

58%

West Ham or Liverpool

75%

Draw or Liverpool

67%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

15%

Liverpool wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

74%

West Ham 2+ goals

39%

West Ham 3+ goals

15%

Liverpool 1+ goals

79%

Liverpool 2+ goals

46%

Liverpool 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

44%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Liverpool attack 1.61 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

West Ham scores more

33%

level

25%

Liverpool scores more

42%

Liverpool at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Mohamed Salah

Liverpool · F

8.9

Match Events

47'

Declan Rice

49'

Tomáš Souček

57'

C. Jones← J. Milner

57'

Mohamed Salah↳ C. Jones

62'

A. Yarmolenko← Pablo Fornals

68'

Mohamed Salah↳ X. Shaqiri

69'

Roberto Firmino← X. Shaqiri

79'

M. Noble← M. Antonio

79'

R. Fredericks← J. Bowen

80'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← D. Origi

84'

G. Wijnaldum↳ Roberto Firmino

87'

C. Dawson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestLiverpool

Overview

32%Possession68%

8Total Shots14

6Corners4

7Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots14

2On Target5

3Off Target6

3Blocked3

6Inside Box10

2Outside Box4

Passing

32%Possession68%

365Total Passes785

280Accurate Passes700

77%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1