Liverpool 5–1 West Ham: Result & Stats | League #48

Liverpool

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

West Ham

C. Gakpo 90+3', 90'

Mohamed Salah 74'

Diogo Jota 49', 25'

J. Quansah 21' (OG)

9/25/2024

League #48 · 3rd RoundAnfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Liverpool67%

×Draw17%

West Ham16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.29

Liverpool

2.71

West Ham

1.29

Liverpool creates 110% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.75

creates per match

1.33

1.25

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Liverpool

2.75

West Ham

1.33

allows per match

Liverpool

1.25

West Ham

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.00on par

West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

84%

Liverpool or West Ham

83%

Draw or West Ham

33%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

46%

West Ham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

93%

Liverpool 2+ goals

75%

Liverpool 3+ goals

50%

West Ham 1+ goals

72%

West Ham 2+ goals

37%

West Ham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

80%

West Ham (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 2.75 + West Ham defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.71

West Ham attack 1.33 + Liverpool defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Liverpool scores more

67%

level

17%

West Ham scores more

16%

Liverpool at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

C. Gakpo

Liverpool · M

9.3

Match Events

21'

J. QuansahOwn goal

25'

Diogo Jota↳ F. Chiesa

49'

Diogo Jota↳ C. Jones

59'

Mohamed Salah← F. Chiesa

59'

A. Mac Allister← Diogo Jota

59'

Lucas Paquetá← T. Souček

60'

63'

67'

70'

74'

76'

76'

78'

A. Irving← Carlos Soler

78'

M. Kudus← J. Bowen

82'

A. Robertson← K. Tsimikas

82'

T. Morton← W. Endō

90'

C. Gakpo↳ D. Núñez

90+3'

C. Gakpo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolWest

Overview

61%Possession39%

21Total Shots12

5Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots12

11On Target3

8Off Target5

2Blocked4

19Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

535Total Passes334

488Accurate Passes260

91%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1