Liverpool 2–1 West Ham: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

West Ham

V. van Dijk 89'

L. Díaz 18'

A. Robertson 86' (OG)

4/13/2025

Premier League · Round 32Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Liverpool53%

×Draw23%

West Ham24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.13

Liverpool

1.79

West Ham

1.13

Liverpool creates 58% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.83

creates per match

1.08

1.17

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Liverpool

1.83

West Ham

1.08

allows per match

Liverpool

1.17

West Ham

1.75

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.21scores more

West Ham-0.08on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

76%

Liverpool or West Ham

77%

Draw or West Ham

47%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

29%

West Ham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

83%

Liverpool 2+ goals

53%

Liverpool 3+ goals

26%

West Ham 1+ goals

68%

West Ham 2+ goals

31%

West Ham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

69%

West Ham (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.83 + West Ham defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.79

West Ham attack 1.08 + Liverpool defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Liverpool scores more

53%

level

23%

West Ham scores more

24%

Liverpool at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Díaz

Liverpool · M

8.2

Match Events

18'

L. Díaz↳ Mohamed Salah

57'

V. Coufal← O. Scarles

60'

A. Robertson← K. Tsimikas

60'

C. Gakpo← Diogo Jota

68'

D. Szoboszlai← C. Jones

68'

J. Quansah← C. Bradley

78'

Luis Guilherme← J. Todibo

78'

N. Füllkrug← Carlos Soler

85'

W. Endō← Mohamed Salah

86'

A. RobertsonOwn goal

89'

V. van Dijk↳ A. Mac Allister

90+8'

Lucas Paquetá

90+6'

Vladimír Coufal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolWest

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots11

1.78Expected Goals (xG)1.50

10Corners3

15Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots11

6On Target4

4Off Target6

5Blocked1

11Inside Box10

4Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

498Total Passes407

425Accurate Passes348

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

-0.28Goals Prevented-0.28

Discipline

15Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

5Offsides4