West Ham 3–1 Leeds: Result & Stats | Premier League

West Ham

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leeds

M. Lanzini 90+4'

J. Bowen 72'

D. Rice 32'

Rodrigo 17'

5/21/2023

Premier League · Round 37London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

West Ham44%

×Draw25%

Leeds31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.25

West Ham

1.54

Leeds

1.25

West Ham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

1.36

creates per match

1.19

1.31

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

West Ham

1.36

Leeds

1.19

allows per match

West Ham

1.31

Leeds

1.73

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.08on par

Leeds-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

69%

West Ham or Leeds

75%

Draw or Leeds

56%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

22%

Leeds wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

79%

West Ham 2+ goals

45%

West Ham 3+ goals

20%

Leeds 1+ goals

71%

Leeds 2+ goals

36%

Leeds 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

59%

Leeds (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 25 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.36 + Leeds defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Leeds attack 1.19 + West Ham defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

West Ham scores more

44%

level

25%

Leeds scores more

31%

West Ham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Bowen

West Ham · M

8.2

Match Events

17'

Rodrigo↳ W. McKennie

32'

D. Rice↳ J. Bowen

34'

W. Gnonto← P. Bamford

46'

T. Kehrer← K. Zouma

62'

C. Summerville← J. Harrison

62'

B. Aaronson← A. Forshaw

65'

Lucas Paquetá

72'

J. Bowen↳ D. Ings

80'

Crysencio Summerville

82'

Rodrigo

84'

M. Lanzini← J. Bowen

84'

S. Greenwood← P. Struijk

84'

Marc Roca← W. McKennie

88'

Robin Koch

90+4'

D. Mubama← D. Ings

90+3'

B. Johnson← Pablo Fornals

90+4'

M. Lanzini↳ Lucas Paquetá

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestLeeds

Overview

59%Possession41%

19Total Shots12

2.15Expected Goals (xG)0.90

9Corners5

6Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots12

9On Target3

4Off Target6

6Blocked3

14Inside Box9

5Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

518Total Passes350

419Accurate Passes255

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

West Ham 3 – 1 Leeds

West Ham beat Leeds 3-1 in Premier League on May 21, 2023.

Goals: Rodrigo (17'), D. Rice (32'), J. Bowen (72'), M. Lanzini (90+4').

West Ham controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.

West Ham vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

West Ham 3 – 1 Leeds