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Leeds vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
West Ham
West Ham
Rodrigo 70'
W. Gnonto 27'
G. Scamacca 46'
Lucas Paquetá 45+1' (pen)
1/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Leeds48%
×Draw25%
West Ham28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.63
West Ham
1.18

Leeds creates 38% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.58
West Ham
1.04

allows per match

Leeds
1.32
West Ham
1.67

finishing

Leeds-0.06on par
West Ham-0.13scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
72%
Leeds or West Ham
75%
Draw or West Ham
52%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
25%
West Ham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
80%
Leeds 2+ goals
48%
Leeds 3+ goals
22%
West Ham 1+ goals
69%
West Ham 2+ goals
33%
West Ham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
63%
West Ham (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.32 · 23 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.58 + West Ham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.63

West Ham attack 1.04 + Leeds defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leeds scores more
48%
level
25%
West Ham scores more
28%

Leeds at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
W. GnontoLeedsLeeds · M
7.7

Match Events

8'
Rodrigo
27'
W. Gnonto↳ C. Summerville
40'
Liam Cooper
44'
Jarrod BowenPenalty confirmed
45+1'
Lucas PaquetáPenalty
46'
G. Scamacca
60'
Crysencio Summerville
63'
M. Klich← C. Summerville
63'
J. Harrison← B. Aaronson
67'
M. Antonio← G. Scamacca
68'
A. Cresswell← V. Coufal
70'
Rodrigo↳ J. Harrison
78'
S. Greenwood← Marc Roca
80'
S. Benrahma← Lucas Paquetá
80'
F. Downes← Pablo Fornals
90+5'
Nayef Aguerd
90+1'
J. Gelhardt← W. Gnonto

Possession

63%Leeds

Shots

14Leeds

Pass accuracy

56%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsWest
Overview
63%Possession37%
14Total Shots15
8Corners1
11Fouls18
Shots
14Total Shots15
6On Target2
6Off Target11
2Blocked2
11Inside Box7
3Outside Box8
Passing
63%Possession37%
476Total Passes275
378Accurate Passes172
79%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls18
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Leeds vs West Ham

Leeds and West Ham drew 2-2 in Premier League on January 4, 2023.

Goals: W. Gnonto (27'), Lucas Paquetá (45+1' pen), G. Scamacca (46'), Rodrigo (70').

Leeds controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.