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West Ham vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
C. Dawson 28'
J. Lingard 21'
3/8/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

West Ham44%
×Draw24%
Leeds32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.60
Leeds
1.33

West Ham creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 26 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.38
Leeds
1.15

allows per match

West Ham
1.51
Leeds
1.83

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par
Leeds-0.15scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
68%
West Ham or Leeds
76%
Draw or Leeds
56%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
22%
Leeds wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
80%
West Ham 2+ goals
47%
West Ham 3+ goals
22%
Leeds 1+ goals
74%
Leeds 2+ goals
38%
Leeds 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
58%
Leeds (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.83 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Leeds defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Leeds attack 1.15 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

West Ham scores more
44%
level
24%
Leeds scores more
32%

West Ham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
A. CresswellWest HamWest Ham · D
7.9

Match Events

7'
Tyler RobertsPenalty confirmed
21'
J. Lingard
28'
C. Dawson↳ A. Cresswell
46'
E. Alioski← M. Klich
46'
J. Harrison← Hélder Costa
49'
Kalvin Phillips
60'
Rodrigo← T. Roberts
73'
J. Bowen← S. Benrahma
79'
Jesse Lingard
87'
B. Johnson← J. Lingard

Possession

34%West

Shots

16West

Pass accuracy

45%West

Statistics

WestLeeds
Overview
34%Possession66%
16Total Shots17
6Corners6
9Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots17
5On Target2
6Off Target10
5Blocked5
8Inside Box11
8Outside Box6
Passing
34%Possession66%
276Total Passes528
190Accurate Passes441
69%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: West Ham vs Leeds

West Ham beat Leeds 2-0 in Premier League on March 8, 2021.

Goals: J. Lingard (21'), C. Dawson (28').

Leeds controlled possession (66%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.