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West Ham vs Hull City — League #48 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
A. Yarmolenko 90+2', 56' (pen)
S. Haller 90+1', 45'
R. Snodgrass 18'
M. Wilks 70'
9/22/2020League #48League #48 · 3rd RoundLondon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

West Ham88%
×Draw8%
Hull City4%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
3.58
Hull City
0.71

West Ham creates 404% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

West Ham
3.50
Hull City
0.67

allows per match

West Ham
0.75
Hull City
3.67

finishing

West Ham+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
96%
West Ham or Hull City
92%
Draw or Hull City
12%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
72%
Hull City wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
97%
West Ham 2+ goals
86%
West Ham 3+ goals
67%
Hull City 1+ goals
51%
Hull City 2+ goals
16%
Hull City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
96%
Hull City (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Hull City away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 3.50 + Hull City defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.58

Hull City attack 0.67 + West Ham defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

West Ham scores more
88%
level
8%
Hull City scores more
4%

West Ham at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
A. YarmolenkoWest HamWest Ham · M
9.9

Match Events

17'
G. Honeyman← R. Smallwood
18'
R. Snodgrass↳ A. Yarmolenko
45'
S. Haller↳ A. Yarmolenko
55'
Sean McLoughlin
56'
A. YarmolenkoPenalty
59'
George Honeyman
61'
K. Lewis-Potter← T. Mayer
61'
M. Wilks← J. Scott
65'
Brandon Fleming
69'
M. Emmanuel← H. Ashby
70'
M. Wilks↳ J. Magennis
90+1'
S. Haller↳ M. Lanzini
90+2'
A. Yarmolenko↳ Felipe Anderson

Possession

61%West

Shots

19West

Pass accuracy

53%West

Statistics

WestHull
Overview
61%Possession39%
19Total Shots5
4Corners1
11Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots5
8On Target4
8Off Target1
3Blocked0
13Inside Box4
6Outside Box1
Passing
61%Possession39%
624Total Passes385
519Accurate Passes284
83%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls14
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: West Ham vs Hull City

West Ham beat Hull City 5-1 in League #48 on September 22, 2020.

Goals: R. Snodgrass (18'), S. Haller (45', 90+1'), A. Yarmolenko (56' pen, 90+2'), M. Wilks (70').

West Ham controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 5.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.