Hull City 2–1 West Ham: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

West Ham

A. Ranocchia 85'

A. Robertson 53'

A. Carroll 18'

4/1/2017

Premier League · Round 30KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hull City38%

×Draw25%

West Ham37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.42

Hull City

1.43

West Ham

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 198 away

1.26

creates per match

1.21

1.64

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Hull City

1.26

West Ham

1.21

allows per match

Hull City

1.64

West Ham

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

63%

Hull City or West Ham

75%

Draw or West Ham

62%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

18%

West Ham wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

76%

Hull City 2+ goals

42%

Hull City 3+ goals

17%

West Ham 1+ goals

76%

West Ham 2+ goals

41%

West Ham 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

50%

West Ham (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 198 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.26 + West Ham defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

West Ham attack 1.21 + Hull City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hull City scores more

38%

level

25%

West Ham scores more

37%

Hull City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Kouyaté

West Ham · M

7.5

Match Events

2'

José Fonte

18'

A. Carroll↳ A. Cresswell

46'

K. Grosicki← C. Davies

53'

A. Robertson↳ K. Grosicki

58'

Oumar Niasse

64'

Andy Carroll

66'

E. Fernandes← R. Snodgrass

68'

A. Masuaku← A. Cresswell

73'

Alfred N'Diaye

79'

S. Maloney← A. NDiaye

80'

M. Henriksen← A. Hernández

85'

A. Ranocchia↳ K. Grosicki

90+2'

J. Calleri← C. Kouyaté

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullWest

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots12

5Corners5

16Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots12

3On Target4

3Off Target7

1Blocked1

6Inside Box8

1Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

385Total Passes454

259Accurate Passes357

67%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1