West Ham 2–0 Everton: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Everton

J. Bowen 41', 34'

1/21/2023

Premier League · Round 21London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

West Ham44%

×Draw25%

Everton31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.25

West Ham

1.52

Everton

1.25

West Ham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

1.33

creates per match

1.16

1.33

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

West Ham

1.33

Everton

1.16

allows per match

West Ham

1.33

Everton

1.70

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

West Ham+0.05on par

Everton-0.07on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

69%

West Ham or Everton

75%

Draw or Everton

56%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

22%

Everton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

78%

West Ham 2+ goals

45%

West Ham 3+ goals

20%

Everton 1+ goals

71%

Everton 2+ goals

36%

Everton 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

58%

Everton (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Everton away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.33 + Everton defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Everton attack 1.16 + West Ham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

West Ham scores more

44%

level

25%

Everton scores more

31%

West Ham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Bowen

West Ham · F

8.3

Match Events

34'

J. Bowen

35'

Jarrod BowenGoal confirmed

41'

J. Bowen↳ M. Antonio

46'

D. McNeil← V. Mykolenko

46'

T. Davies← S. Coleman

50'

Lucas Paquetá

67'

James Tarkowski

72'

T. Souček← Lucas Paquetá

72'

D. Ings← M. Antonio

81'

B. Johnson← Emerson

82'

F. Downes← S. Benrahma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestEverton

Overview

32%Possession68%

11Total Shots5

2.27Expected Goals (xG)0.55

4Corners9

9Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots5

4On Target2

3Off Target1

4Blocked2

9Inside Box4

2Outside Box1

Passing

32%Possession68%

346Total Passes729

275Accurate Passes639

79%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2