Everton 1–0 West Ham: Result & Stats

Everton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

West Ham

N. Maupay 53'

9/18/2022

Premier League · Round 8Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Everton46%

×Draw25%

West Ham29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EvertonExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.16

Everton

1.52

West Ham

1.16

Everton creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

1.28

creates per match

1.01

1.31

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Everton

1.28

West Ham

1.01

allows per match

Everton

1.31

West Ham

1.76

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Everton+0.10scores more

West Ham-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Everton or draw

71%

Everton or West Ham

75%

Draw or West Ham

54%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+

23%

West Ham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals

78%

Everton 2+ goals

45%

Everton 3+ goals

20%

West Ham 1+ goals

69%

West Ham 2+ goals

32%

West Ham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)

61%

West Ham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 21 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.76 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.28 + West Ham defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

West Ham attack 1.01 + Everton defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Everton scores more

46%

level

25%

West Ham scores more

29%

Everton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Begović

Everton · G

8.0

Match Events

28'

Conor Coady

53'

N. Maupay↳ A. Iwobi

61'

S. Benrahma← Pablo Fornals

61'

M. Cornet← Lucas Paquetá

62'

Anthony Gordon

70'

G. Scamacca← M. Antonio

74'

81'

89'

90+4'

90+5'

90+3'

Emerson← A. Cresswell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EvertonWest

Overview

54%Possession46%

7Total Shots14

5Corners14

8Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots14

2On Target4

4Off Target3

1Blocked7

3Inside Box12

4Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

464Total Passes388

385Accurate Passes309

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1