West Ham 3–1 Everton: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Everton

M. Lanzini 82', 39'

M. Arnautović 63'

O. Niasse 74'

5/13/2018

Premier League · Round 38London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

West Ham43%

×Draw25%

Everton33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.33

West Ham

1.56

Everton

1.33

West Ham creates 17% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

1.38

creates per match

1.15

1.51

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

West Ham

1.38

Everton

1.15

allows per match

West Ham

1.51

Everton

1.75

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par

Everton-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

67%

West Ham or Everton

75%

Draw or Everton

57%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

21%

Everton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

79%

West Ham 2+ goals

46%

West Ham 3+ goals

21%

Everton 1+ goals

74%

Everton 2+ goals

38%

Everton 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

57%

Everton (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Everton away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.75 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Everton defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Everton attack 1.15 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

West Ham scores more

43%

level

25%

Everton scores more

33%

West Ham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Lanzini

West Ham · F

8.9

Match Events

16'

Ramiro Funes Mori

21'

E. Fernandes← A. Masuaku

39'

M. Lanzini↳ M. Arnautović

46'

D. Klaassen← Ramiro Funes Mori

61'

T. Walcott← C. Tosun

63'

M. Arnautović↳ E. Fernandes

74'

O. Niasse

82'

M. Lanzini↳ P. Zabaleta

83'

Y. Bolasie← T. Davies

86'

Pedro Obiang← M. Lanzini

88'

J. Collins← A. Cresswell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestEverton

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots14

6Corners6

10Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots14

4On Target7

5Off Target3

6Blocked4

6Inside Box9

9Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

479Total Passes365

396Accurate Passes283

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1