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West Ham vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Chelsea
Chelsea
A. Masuaku 87'
J. Bowen 56'
M. Lanzini 40' (pen)
M. Mount 44'
Thiago Silva 28'
12/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

West Ham35%
×Draw25%
Chelsea40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.42
Chelsea
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 32 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.38
Chelsea
1.54

allows per match

West Ham
1.51
Chelsea
1.47

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par
Chelsea-0.10scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
60%
West Ham or Chelsea
75%
Draw or Chelsea
65%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
16%
Chelsea wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
76%
West Ham 2+ goals
41%
West Ham 3+ goals
17%
Chelsea 1+ goals
78%
Chelsea 2+ goals
45%
Chelsea 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
47%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Chelsea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chelsea attack 1.54 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

West Ham scores more
35%
level
25%
Chelsea scores more
40%

Chelsea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. MountChelseaChelsea · F
8.9

Match Events

23'
Jorginho
28'
Thiago Silva↳ M. Mount
40'
M. LanziniPenalty
44'
M. Mount↳ H. Ziyech
45+2'
A. Masuaku← B. Johnson
46'
R. Lukaku← K. Havertz
56'
J. Bowen↳ V. Coufal
64'
C. Hudson-Odoi← H. Ziyech
71'
Pablo Fornals← K. Zouma
72'
C. Pulisic← Marcos Alonso
85'
S. Benrahma← M. Lanzini
87'
A. Masuaku↳ M. Antonio
90+1'
Vladimír Coufal
90+4'
Andreas Christensen
90+2'
Reece James

Possession

36%West

Shots

11West

Pass accuracy

47%West

Statistics

WestChelsea
Overview
36%Possession64%
11Total Shots19
1Corners9
10Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots19
5On Target7
6Off Target4
0Blocked8
9Inside Box12
2Outside Box7
Passing
36%Possession64%
335Total Passes588
250Accurate Passes507
75%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Match Recap: West Ham vs Chelsea

West Ham beat Chelsea 3-2 in Premier League on December 4, 2021.

Goals: Thiago Silva (28'), M. Lanzini (40' pen), M. Mount (44'), J. Bowen (56'), A. Masuaku (87').

Chelsea controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.