Chelsea 2–1 West Ham: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

West Ham

K. Havertz 88'

B. Chilwell 76'

M. Antonio 62'

9/3/2022

Premier League · Round 6Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Chelsea51%

×Draw23%

West Ham26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.23

Chelsea

1.83

West Ham

1.23

Chelsea creates 49% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 30 away

1.87

creates per match

1.09

1.36

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Chelsea

1.87

West Ham

1.09

allows per match

Chelsea

1.36

West Ham

1.79

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Chelsea-0.31scores less

West Ham-0.06on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

74%

Chelsea or West Ham

77%

Draw or West Ham

49%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

29%

West Ham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

84%

Chelsea 2+ goals

54%

Chelsea 3+ goals

28%

West Ham 1+ goals

71%

West Ham 2+ goals

35%

West Ham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

67%

West Ham (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.87 + West Ham defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

West Ham attack 1.09 + Chelsea defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chelsea scores more

51%

level

23%

West Ham scores more

26%

Chelsea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

B. Chilwell

Chelsea · D

8.2

Match Events

10'

35'

54'

55'

60'

60'

A. Broja← C. Gallagher

62'

M. Antonio↳ D. Rice

71'

B. Chilwell← Marc Cucurella

72'

K. Havertz← M. Kovačić

74'

S. Benrahma← M. Antonio

76'

B. Chilwell↳ Thiago Silva

83'

Jorginho← R. Loftus-Cheek

83'

A. Ogbonna← Lucas Paquetá

86'

M. Cornet← Pablo Fornals

88'

K. Havertz↳ B. Chilwell

90+8'

Kai Havertz

90+2'

Thilo Kehrer

90+1'

Maxwel CornetGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaWest

Overview

68%Possession32%

8Total Shots6

10Corners3

6Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots6

3On Target3

2Off Target2

3Blocked1

5Inside Box3

3Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

661Total Passes308

577Accurate Passes232

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1