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Chelsea vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
West Ham
West Ham
C. Pulisic 90'
4/24/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Chelsea54%
×Draw22%
West Ham23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.89
West Ham
1.17

Chelsea creates 62% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 35 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.92
West Ham
1.06

allows per match

Chelsea
1.27
West Ham
1.85

finishing

Chelsea-0.37scores less
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
77%
Chelsea or West Ham
78%
Draw or West Ham
46%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
31%
West Ham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
85%
Chelsea 2+ goals
56%
Chelsea 3+ goals
29%
West Ham 1+ goals
69%
West Ham 2+ goals
33%
West Ham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
70%
West Ham (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.92 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.89

West Ham attack 1.06 + Chelsea defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chelsea scores more
54%
level
22%
West Ham scores more
23%

Chelsea at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
É. MendyChelseaChelsea · G
7.5

Match Events

62'
D. Rice← M. Noble
73'
J. Bowen← A. Yarmolenko
76'
C. Pulisic← T. Werner
76'
R. Lukaku← K. Havertz
76'
H. Ziyech← R. Loftus-Cheek
78'
M. Lanzini← S. Benrahma
82'
Marcos Alonso
85'
Craig DawsonCard upgrade
86'
Craig Dawson
90'
C. Pulisic↳ Marcos Alonso

Possession

67%Chelsea

Shots

26Chelsea

Pass accuracy

54%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaWest
Overview
67%Possession33%
26Total Shots6
3Corners1
11Fouls9
Shots
26Total Shots6
5On Target2
9Off Target2
12Blocked2
14Inside Box5
12Outside Box1
Passing
67%Possession33%
710Total Passes354
628Accurate Passes264
88%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Chelsea vs West Ham

Chelsea beat West Ham 1-0 in Premier League on April 24, 2022.

Goals: C. Pulisic (90').

Chelsea controlled possession (67%) and registered 26 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.