West Ham 2–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chelsea

A. Carroll 79'

M. Zárate 17'

G. Cahill 56'

10/24/2015

Premier League · Round 10London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

West Ham37%

×Draw25%

Chelsea39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.48

West Ham

1.43

Chelsea

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

1.38

creates per match

1.45

1.51

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

West Ham

1.38

Chelsea

1.45

allows per match

West Ham

1.51

Chelsea

1.48

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par

Chelsea-0.01on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

61%

West Ham or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

63%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

17%

Chelsea wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

76%

West Ham 2+ goals

42%

West Ham 3+ goals

17%

Chelsea 1+ goals

77%

Chelsea 2+ goals

43%

Chelsea 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

49%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.48 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Chelsea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Chelsea attack 1.45 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

West Ham scores more

37%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

39%

Chelsea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Willian

Chelsea · M

7.8

Match Events

17'

24'

35'

44'

44'

45'

45'

46'

J. Obi Mikel← Fàbregas

56'

G. Cahill↳ Willian

69'

A. Carroll← M. Zárate

74'

Cheikhou Kouyaté

79'

A. Carroll↳ A. Cresswell

81'

Willian

82'

Pedro Obiang← M. Lanzini

82'

87'

90'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestChelsea

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots9

7Corners4

0Fouls0

Shots

12Total Shots9

5On Target4

4Off Target5

3Blocked0

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

370Total Passes457

282Accurate Passes365

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

4Offsides5