West Ham 3–2 Burnley: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.05

West Ham

1.73

Burnley

1.05

West Ham creates 65% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

1.39

creates per match

0.72

1.38

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

West Ham

1.39

Burnley

0.72

allows per match

West Ham

1.38

Burnley

2.08

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par

Burnley+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

77%

West Ham or Burnley

76%

Draw or Burnley

47%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

29%

Burnley wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

82%

West Ham 2+ goals

52%

West Ham 3+ goals

25%

Burnley 1+ goals

65%

Burnley 2+ goals

28%

Burnley 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

70%

Burnley (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.38 · 33 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.08 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.39 + Burnley defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Burnley attack 0.72 + West Ham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

West Ham scores more

53%

level

24%

Burnley scores more

23%

West Ham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

35'

44'

55'

62'

67'

J. Bruun Larsen← L. Tchaouna

71'

S. Magassa← C. Wilson

71'

A. Broja← Z. Flemming

71'

H. Mejbri← L. Ugochukwu

77'

T. Soucek

81'

Lucas Pires← Q. Hartman

81'

M. Edwards← J. Anthony

83'

K. Walker-Peters← C. Summerville

83'

86'

87'

90+6'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestBurnley

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots16

3.02Expected Goals (xG)1.06

7Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots16

6On Target7

1Off Target2

8Blocked7

8Inside Box9

7Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

374Total Passes517

308Accurate Passes440

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

0.06Goals Prevented0.06

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Premier League: West Ham 3–2 Burnley

West Ham beat Burnley 3-2 in Premier League on November 8, 2025.

Goals: Z. Flemming (35'), C. Wilson (44'), T. Soucek (77'), K. Walker-Peters (87'), J. Cullen (90').

Burnley controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.

West Ham vs Burnley — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: West Ham 3–2 Burnley