Burnley 1–2 West Ham: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

West Ham

C. Wood 19' (pen)

M. Antonio 29', 21'

5/3/2021

Premier League · Round 34Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley35%

×Draw25%

West Ham40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.48

Burnley

1.36

West Ham

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

0.96

creates per match

1.01

1.94

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Burnley

0.96

West Ham

1.01

allows per match

Burnley

1.94

West Ham

1.76

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par

West Ham-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

60%

Burnley or West Ham

75%

Draw or West Ham

65%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

16%

West Ham wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

74%

Burnley 2+ goals

39%

Burnley 3+ goals

16%

West Ham 1+ goals

77%

West Ham 2+ goals

43%

West Ham 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

46%

West Ham (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.76 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + West Ham defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.36

West Ham attack 1.01 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burnley scores more

35%

level

25%

West Ham scores more

40%

West Ham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Antonio

West Ham · F

9.0

Match Events

19'

C. WoodPenalty

21'

M. Antonio↳ V. Coufal

29'

M. Antonio↳ S. Benrahma

61'

J. Rodriguez← M. Vydra

74'

J. Guðmundsson← D. McNeil

78'

J. Bowen← S. Benrahma

85'

85'

86'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyWest

Overview

44%Possession56%

8Total Shots22

5Corners4

4Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots22

3On Target4

3Off Target12

2Blocked6

7Inside Box13

1Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

426Total Passes544

304Accurate Passes427

71%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

4Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2