West Ham 1–0 Burnley: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burnley

M. Noble 45+3'

12/14/2016

Premier League · Round 16London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

West Ham51%

×Draw24%

Burnley25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.15

West Ham

1.74

Burnley

1.15

West Ham creates 51% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 21 away

1.38

creates per match

0.79

1.51

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

West Ham

1.38

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

West Ham

1.51

Burnley

2.10

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

75%

West Ham or Burnley

76%

Draw or Burnley

49%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

28%

Burnley wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

82%

West Ham 2+ goals

52%

West Ham 3+ goals

25%

Burnley 1+ goals

68%

Burnley 2+ goals

32%

Burnley 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

67%

Burnley (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.74

Burnley attack 0.79 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

West Ham scores more

51%

level

24%

Burnley scores more

25%

West Ham at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Payet

West Ham · F

8.0

Match Events

45+3'

62'

69'

72'

76'

83'

A. Fletcher← A. Carroll

89'

H. Nordtveit← M. Noble

90+4'

P. Bamford← S. Arfield

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestBurnley

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots8

6Corners1

12Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots8

7On Target2

10Off Target4

3Blocked2

10Inside Box3

10Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

440Total Passes312

352Accurate Passes197

80%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3