West Ham 0–2 Brighton: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Brighton

L. Trossard 66'

A. Mac Allister 22' (pen)

8/21/2022

Premier League · Round 3London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

West Ham38%

×Draw25%

Brighton37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.40

West Ham

1.43

Brighton

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

1.33

creates per match

1.47

1.33

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

West Ham

1.33

Brighton

1.47

allows per match

West Ham

1.33

Brighton

1.52

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.05on par

Brighton-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

63%

West Ham or Brighton

75%

Draw or Brighton

62%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

18%

Brighton wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

76%

West Ham 2+ goals

42%

West Ham 3+ goals

17%

Brighton 1+ goals

75%

Brighton 2+ goals

41%

Brighton 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

51%

Brighton (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.33 + Brighton defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Brighton attack 1.47 + West Ham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

West Ham scores more

38%

level

25%

Brighton scores more

37%

West Ham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

P. Groß

Brighton · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

Thilo Kehrer

21'

Danny WelbeckPenalty confirmed

22'

A. Mac AllisterPenalty

62'

G. Scamacca← Pablo Fornals

63'

P. Estupiñán← A. Lallana

66'

L. Trossard↳ P. Groß

71'

Aaron Cresswell

74'

M. Cornet← M. Antonio

75'

B. Johnson← V. Coufal

75'

M. Lanzini← S. Benrahma

85'

E. Mwepu← S. March

90+3'

K. Mitoma← L. Trossard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestBrighton

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots11

5Corners4

10Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots11

3On Target2

3Off Target5

7Blocked4

8Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

467Total Passes485

376Accurate Passes395

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1