Brighton 3–1 West Ham: Result & Stats

Brighton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

West Ham

D. Welbeck 90+2'

P. Groß 80'

J. Veltman 50'

M. Antonio 40'

5/22/2022

Premier League · Round 38The American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Brighton49%

×Draw25%

West Ham26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.08

Brighton

1.57

West Ham

1.08

Brighton creates 45% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.48

creates per match

1.04

1.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Brighton

1.48

West Ham

1.04

allows per match

Brighton

1.13

West Ham

1.67

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Brighton+0.14scores more

West Ham-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

74%

Brighton or West Ham

75%

Draw or West Ham

51%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

25%

West Ham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

79%

Brighton 2+ goals

46%

Brighton 3+ goals

21%

West Ham 1+ goals

66%

West Ham 2+ goals

29%

West Ham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

65%

West Ham (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.13 · 21 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.48 + West Ham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

West Ham attack 1.04 + Brighton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brighton scores more

49%

level

25%

West Ham scores more

26%

Brighton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

P. Groß

Brighton · M

8.3

Match Events

40'

M. Antonio

42'

Tomáš Souček

46'

N. Maupay← Y. Bissouma

50'

75'

79'

80'

81'

B. Johnson← V. Coufal

81'

A. Yarmolenko← M. Lanzini

81'

M. Noble← Pablo Fornals

83'

Neal Maupay

90+2'

D. Welbeck↳ P. Groß

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonWest

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots7

5Corners6

9Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots7

7On Target2

4Off Target2

7Blocked3

13Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

489Total Passes480

403Accurate Passes391

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1