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West Ham vs Brighton — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brighton
Brighton
T. Souček 5'
N. Maupay 89'
12/1/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

West Ham38%
×Draw24%
Brighton37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.52
Brighton
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.38
Brighton
1.50

allows per match

West Ham
1.51
Brighton
1.67

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par
Brighton-0.31scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Brighton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
63%
West Ham or Brighton
76%
Draw or Brighton
62%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
18%
Brighton wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
78%
West Ham 2+ goals
45%
West Ham 3+ goals
20%
Brighton 1+ goals
78%
Brighton 2+ goals
44%
Brighton 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
51%
Brighton (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Brighton defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Brighton attack 1.50 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

West Ham scores more
38%
level
24%
Brighton scores more
37%

West Ham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Pablo FornalsWest HamWest Ham · M
7.7

Match Events

5'
T. Souček↳ Pablo Fornals
13'
S. March← J. Sarmiento
36'
S. Duffy← A. Webster
52'
Michail AntonioGoal cancelled
70'
T. Lamptey← J. Veltman
76'
M. Lanzini← S. Benrahma
77'
A. Masuaku← Pablo Fornals
89'
N. Maupay↳ T. Lamptey
90+6'
Michail Antonio
90'
Neal Maupay

Possession

34%West

Shots

14West

Pass accuracy

46%West

Statistics

WestBrighton
Overview
34%Possession66%
14Total Shots9
9Corners5
10Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots9
6On Target3
6Off Target4
2Blocked2
8Inside Box6
6Outside Box3
Passing
34%Possession66%
271Total Passes540
197Accurate Passes462
73%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Premier League: West Ham 1–1 Brighton

West Ham and Brighton drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 1, 2021.

Goals: T. Souček (5'), N. Maupay (89').

Brighton controlled possession (66%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.