West Ham 2–0 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bournemouth

S. Benrahma 90+2' (pen)

K. Zouma 45'

10/24/2022

Premier League · Round 13London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

West Ham42%

×Draw24%

Bournemouth34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.46

West Ham

1.63

Bournemouth

1.46

West Ham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.36

creates per match

1.57

1.34

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

West Ham

1.36

Bournemouth

1.57

allows per match

West Ham

1.34

Bournemouth

1.89

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.09on par

Bournemouth-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

66%

West Ham or Bournemouth

76%

Draw or Bournemouth

58%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

21%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

80%

West Ham 2+ goals

48%

West Ham 3+ goals

22%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

77%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

43%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

55%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.36 + Bournemouth defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bournemouth attack 1.57 + West Ham defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

West Ham scores more

42%

level

24%

Bournemouth scores more

34%

West Ham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Cresswell

West Ham · D

8.0

Match Events

45+1'

Kurt ZoumaGoal confirmed

45'

K. Moore← D. Solanke

45'

K. Zouma↳ T. Souček

46'

M. Travers← Neto

55'

Jefferson Lerma

57'

J. Anthony← R. Christie

57'

J. Zemura← R. Fredericks

71'

Chris Mepham

74'

M. Antonio← G. Scamacca

88'

Pablo Fornals← F. Downes

88'

V. Coufal← J. Bowen

90'

Vladimír CoufalPenalty confirmed

90+2'

S. BenrahmaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestBournemouth

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots5

5Corners0

9Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots5

4On Target3

8Off Target2

8Blocked0

11Inside Box4

9Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

497Total Passes432

421Accurate Passes359

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0