Bournemouth 0–4 West Ham: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

West Ham

Pablo Fornals 72'

D. Rice 43'

Lucas Paquetá 12'

M. Antonio 5'

4/23/2023

Premier League · Round 32Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Bournemouth53%

×Draw24%

West Ham22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.00

Bournemouth

1.69

West Ham

1.00

Bournemouth creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

1.62

creates per match

1.07

0.94

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.62

West Ham

1.07

allows per match

Bournemouth

0.94

West Ham

1.75

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Bournemouth-0.17scores less

West Ham-0.07on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

78%

Bournemouth or West Ham

76%

Draw or West Ham

47%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

29%

West Ham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

82%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

50%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

24%

West Ham 1+ goals

63%

West Ham 2+ goals

26%

West Ham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

71%

West Ham (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.94 · 20 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.75 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.62 + West Ham defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

West Ham attack 1.07 + Bournemouth defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bournemouth scores more

53%

level

24%

West Ham scores more

22%

Bournemouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Ł. Fabiański

West Ham · G

8.3

Match Events

5'

M. Antonio↳ A. Cresswell

12'

Lucas Paquetá↳ V. Coufal

43'

D. Rice↳ T. Souček

46'

K. Moore← J. Rothwell

48'

56'

61'

61'

61'

D. Ouattara← R. Christie

65'

D. Ings← M. Antonio

65'

Pablo Fornals← S. Benrahma

67'

Łukasz Fabiański

72'

Pablo Fornals↳ J. Bowen

75'

L. Cook← J. Lerma

76'

M. Cornet← J. Bowen

76'

F. Downes← Lucas Paquetá

83'

T. Kehrer← V. Coufal

90+1'

Maxwel CornetGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthWest

Overview

65%Possession35%

17Total Shots18

1.52Expected Goals (xG)2.43

8Corners5

7Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots18

5On Target10

7Off Target4

5Blocked4

10Inside Box10

7Outside Box8

Passing

65%Possession35%

643Total Passes358

560Accurate Passes278

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

Premier League: Bournemouth 0–4 West Ham

West Ham beat Bournemouth 4-0 in Premier League on April 23, 2023.

Goals: M. Antonio (5'), Lucas Paquetá (12'), D. Rice (43'), Pablo Fornals (72').

Bournemouth controlled possession (65%) and registered 17 shots to 18.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, Dorset.

Bournemouth vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Bournemouth 0–4 West Ham