West Ham 4–0 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Bournemouth

Felipe Anderson 66'

M. Noble 35' (pen), 17'

S. Haller 25'

1/1/2020

Premier League · Round 21London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

West Ham41%

×Draw24%

Bournemouth36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.52

West Ham

1.63

Bournemouth

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 29 away

1.38

creates per match

1.53

1.51

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

West Ham

1.38

Bournemouth

1.53

allows per match

West Ham

1.51

Bournemouth

1.88

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par

Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

64%

West Ham or Bournemouth

76%

Draw or Bournemouth

59%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

20%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

80%

West Ham 2+ goals

48%

West Ham 3+ goals

22%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

78%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

45%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

53%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

West Ham scores more

41%

level

24%

Bournemouth scores more

36%

West Ham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Noble

West Ham · M

8.8

Match Events

17'

M. Noble↳ R. Snodgrass

23'

Diego Rico

25'

S. Haller↳ R. Fredericks

35'

M. NoblePenalty

46'

R. Fraser← H. Wilson

46'

J. Stanislas← Diego Rico

66'

Felipe Anderson↳ D. Rice

68'

M. Lanzini← Felipe Anderson

68'

J. Simpson← D. Gosling

76'

Aaron Cresswell

83'

A. Masuaku← R. Snodgrass

88'

Lewis Cook

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestBournemouth

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots3

9Corners2

3Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots3

7On Target2

5Off Target1

2Blocked0

10Inside Box3

4Outside Box0

Passing

42%Possession58%

444Total Passes618

352Accurate Passes539

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

3Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3