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West Ham vs Bournemouth — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
M. Antonio 85'
8/21/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

West Ham41%
×Draw24%
Bournemouth36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.63
Bournemouth
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 29 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.38
Bournemouth
1.53

allows per match

West Ham
1.51
Bournemouth
1.88

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par
Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
64%
West Ham or Bournemouth
76%
Draw or Bournemouth
59%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
20%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
80%
West Ham 2+ goals
48%
West Ham 3+ goals
22%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
78%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
45%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
53%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

West Ham scores more
41%
level
24%
Bournemouth scores more
36%

West Ham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
M. AntonioWest HamWest Ham · M
8.4

Match Events

33'
Harry Arter
37'
Steve Cook
38'
Sam Byram
45'
Winston Reid
63'
J. Calleri← E. Valencia
75'
L. Grabban← C. Wilson
77'
Harry Arter
77'
Harry Arter
79'
N. Aké← J. Ibe
80'
A. Fletcher← H. Nordtveit
85'
M. Antonio↳ G. Töre
86'
D. Gosling← R. Fraser
89'
Pedro Obiang← G. Töre
90'
Pedro Obiang

Possession

46%West

Shots

16West

Pass accuracy

50%West

Statistics

WestBournemouth
Overview
46%Possession54%
16Total Shots8
1Corners6
15Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots8
2On Target5
9Off Target1
5Blocked2
9Inside Box4
7Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
355Total Passes410
277Accurate Passes320
78%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: West Ham vs Bournemouth

West Ham beat Bournemouth 1-0 in Premier League on August 21, 2016.

Goals: M. Antonio (85').

Bournemouth controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.