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West Ham vs Anderlecht — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

West Ham
West Ham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
10/13/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 4London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

West Ham57%
×Draw24%
Anderlecht20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.72
Anderlecht
0.90

West Ham creates 91% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

West Ham
2.71
Anderlecht
1.09

allows per match

West Ham
0.71
Anderlecht
0.73

finishing

West Ham+0.00on par
Anderlecht+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
80%
West Ham or Anderlecht
76%
Draw or Anderlecht
43%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
32%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
82%
West Ham 2+ goals
51%
West Ham 3+ goals
25%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
59%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
23%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
74%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 2.71 + Anderlecht defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.72

Anderlecht attack 1.09 + West Ham defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

West Ham scores more
57%
level
24%
Anderlecht scores more
20%

West Ham at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Ham vs Anderlecht

West Ham beat Anderlecht 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 13, 2022.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.