Anderlecht 0–1 West Ham: Result & Stats

Anderlecht

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

West Ham

10/6/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 3Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Anderlecht30%

×Draw26%

West Ham44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnderlechtExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.45

Anderlecht

1.15

West Ham

1.45

West Ham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

2.00

0.90

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Anderlecht

1.80

West Ham

2.00

allows per match

Anderlecht

0.90

West Ham

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anderlecht+0.00on par

West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw

56%

Anderlecht or West Ham

74%

Draw or West Ham

70%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+

12%

West Ham wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals

68%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

32%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

11%

West Ham 1+ goals

77%

West Ham 2+ goals

42%

West Ham 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

41%

West Ham (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

West Ham away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.80 + West Ham defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

West Ham attack 2.00 + Anderlecht defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Anderlecht scores more

30%

level

26%

West Ham scores more

44%

West Ham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff