West Brom 3–1 Watford: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Watford

M. Phillips 90+1'

C. Brunt 34'

J. Evans 16'

C. Kabasele 60'

12/3/2016

Premier League · Round 14The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom43%

×Draw26%

Watford32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.23

West Brom

1.47

Watford

1.23

West Brom creates 20% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 112 away

1.15

creates per match

0.96

1.50

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

Watford

0.96

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

Watford

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

68%

West Brom or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

57%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

21%

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

77%

West Brom 2+ goals

43%

West Brom 3+ goals

18%

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

57%

Watford (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.47

Watford attack 0.96 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

West Brom scores more

43%

level

26%

Watford scores more

32%

West Brom at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Brunt

West Brom · M

8.9

Match Events

15'

Gareth McAuley

16'

J. Evans↳ C. Brunt

34'

C. Brunt↳ J. Morrison

60'

C. Kabasele↳ T. Deeney

75'

N. Chadli← J. Morrison

77'

80'

84'

84'

85'

88'

H. Robson-Kanu← S. Rondón

90+4'

J. Sinclair← S. Okaka

90+1'

M. Phillips↳ D. Fletcher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestWatford

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots17

3Corners4

12Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots17

3On Target5

8Off Target5

0Blocked7

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

298Total Passes442

185Accurate Passes343

62%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2