Watford 2–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

V. Bayo 50', 35'

J. Molumby 67'

12/15/2024

Championship · Round 21Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Watford37%

×Draw27%

West Brom36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.21

Watford

1.23

West Brom

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 37 away

1.30

creates per match

1.18

1.24

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Watford

1.30

West Brom

1.18

allows per match

Watford

1.24

West Brom

1.17

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Watford-0.08on par

West Brom-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

64%

Watford or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

16%

West Brom wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

70%

West Brom 2+ goals

34%

West Brom 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

51%

West Brom (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.17 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.30 + West Brom defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

West Brom attack 1.18 + Watford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Watford scores more

37%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

36%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

V. Bayo

Watford · F

8.2

Match Events

21'

Moussa Sissoko

35'

V. Bayo↳ R. Vata

46'

M. Johnston← C. Styles

50'

V. Bayo↳ R. Vata

53'

Jayson Molumby

65'

J. Swift← J. Maja

65'

A. Mowatt← U. Račić

65'

G. Frabotta← K. Bartley

67'

J. Molumby

70'

Imrân Louza

74'

E. Kayembe← R. Vata

75'

F. Sierralta← K. Baah

78'

J. Wallace← J. Molumby

81'

Tom Fellows

81'

Y. Larouci← J. Morris

87'

D. Jebbison← V. Bayo

90+8'

John Swift

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordWest

Overview

36%Possession64%

14Total Shots16

1.40Expected Goals (xG)1.39

4Corners5

9Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots16

7On Target5

3Off Target7

4Blocked4

11Inside Box9

3Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

320Total Passes551

253Accurate Passes478

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

0.32Goals Prevented0.32

Discipline

9Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Championship: Watford 2–1 West Brom

Watford beat West Brom 2-1 in Championship on December 15, 2024.

Goals: V. Bayo (35', 50'), J. Molumby (67').

West Brom controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 2–1 West Brom