Watford 2–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

West Brom

R. Vata 58'

I. Louza 38'

I. Price 34'

10/22/2025

Championship · Round 11Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Watford32%

×Draw27%

West Brom41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.32

Watford

1.12

West Brom

1.32

West Brom creates 18% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 7 away

1.36

creates per match

1.48

1.16

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Watford

1.36

West Brom

1.48

allows per match

Watford

1.16

West Brom

0.88

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.62scores less than expected

finishing

Watford-0.07on par

West Brom-0.62scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

59%

Watford or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

68%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

13%

West Brom wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

67%

Watford 2+ goals

31%

Watford 3+ goals

10%

West Brom 1+ goals

73%

West Brom 2+ goals

38%

West Brom 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

43%

West Brom (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.36 + West Brom defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.12

West Brom attack 1.48 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Watford scores more

32%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

41%

West Brom at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Louza

Watford · M

9.2

Match Events

34'

I. Price↳ M. Johnston

38'

42'

46'

46'

46'

M. Doumbia← N. Irankunda

55'

G. Campbell← A. Gilchrist

58'

R. Vata

70'

J. Maja← A. Heggebo

70'

K. Grant← S. Iling Junior

73'

E. Kayembe← R. Vata

80'

C. Taylor← C. Styles

80'

D. Dike← O. Diakite

88'

M. Sissoko← L. Kjerrumgaard

90+4'

P. Dwomoh← I. Louza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordWest

Overview

40%Possession60%

19Total Shots9

0.86Expected Goals (xG)0.63

4Corners4

12Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots9

5On Target4

9Off Target4

5Blocked1

7Inside Box4

12Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

371Total Passes572

308Accurate Passes496

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

-0.54Goals Prevented-0.54

Discipline

12Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0