West Brom 1–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tottenham

N. Chadli 82'

D. Alli 89'

10/15/2016

Premier League · Round 8The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom30%

×Draw25%

Tottenham45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.56

West Brom

1.24

Tottenham

1.56

Tottenham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 202 away

1.15

creates per match

1.63

1.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

Tottenham

1.63

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

Tottenham

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

Tottenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

55%

West Brom or Tottenham

75%

Draw or Tottenham

70%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

13%

Tottenham wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

71%

West Brom 2+ goals

35%

West Brom 3+ goals

13%

Tottenham 1+ goals

79%

Tottenham 2+ goals

46%

Tottenham 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

40%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 202 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Tottenham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tottenham attack 1.63 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

West Brom scores more

30%

level

25%

Tottenham scores more

45%

Tottenham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

B. Davies

Tottenham · D

7.6

Match Events

44'

James McClean

54'

Jan Vertonghen

60'

E. Dier← T. Alderweireld

65'

M. Dembélé← M. Sissoko

69'

C. Brunt← M. Phillips

72'

Heung-Min Son← E. Lamela

82'

N. Chadli

86'

Mousa Dembélé

88'

C. Gardner← N. Chadli

89'

D. Alli↳ C. Eriksen

90'

Jonny Evans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestTottenham

Overview

28%Possession72%

8Total Shots20

5Corners8

14Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots20

4On Target8

3Off Target3

1Blocked9

7Inside Box10

1Outside Box10

Passing

28%Possession72%

228Total Passes601

140Accurate Passes540

61%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3