Tottenham 1–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

H. Kane 74'

S. Rondón 4'

11/25/2017

Premier League · Round 13Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Tottenham55%

×Draw24%

West Brom21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.96

Tottenham

1.70

West Brom

0.96

Tottenham creates 77% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 94 away

1.89

creates per match

0.84

1.07

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Tottenham

1.89

West Brom

0.84

allows per match

Tottenham

1.07

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

79%

Tottenham or West Brom

76%

Draw or West Brom

45%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

30%

West Brom wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

82%

Tottenham 2+ goals

51%

Tottenham 3+ goals

24%

West Brom 1+ goals

62%

West Brom 2+ goals

25%

West Brom 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

72%

West Brom (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.07 · 198 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.89 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.70

West Brom attack 0.84 + Tottenham defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tottenham scores more

55%

level

24%

West Brom scores more

21%

Tottenham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

K. Trippier

Tottenham · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

S. Rondón↳ J. Livermore

26'

Gareth Barry

58'

Eric Dier

60'

Kieran Gibbs

60'

Llorente← J. Vertonghen

61'

M. Dembélé← H. Winks

67'

H. Robson-Kanu← J. Rodriguez

67'

J. McClean← S. Field

74'

H. Kane↳ D. Alli

77'

Allan Nyom

79'

C. Yacob← G. Barry

82'

Ben Foster

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamWest

Overview

72%Possession28%

25Total Shots5

8Corners0

10Fouls13

Shots

25Total Shots5

5On Target2

10Off Target3

10Blocked0

9Inside Box4

16Outside Box1

Passing

72%Possession28%

689Total Passes266

601Accurate Passes190

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides6