Tottenham 4–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

West Brom

H. Kane 82', 77', 12'

G. McAuley 26' (OG)

1/14/2017

Premier League · Round 21White Hart Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Tottenham55%

×Draw24%

West Brom21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.96

Tottenham

1.70

West Brom

0.96

Tottenham creates 77% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 94 away

1.89

creates per match

0.84

1.07

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Tottenham

1.89

West Brom

0.84

allows per match

Tottenham

1.07

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

79%

Tottenham or West Brom

76%

Draw or West Brom

45%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

30%

West Brom wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

82%

Tottenham 2+ goals

51%

Tottenham 3+ goals

24%

West Brom 1+ goals

62%

West Brom 2+ goals

25%

West Brom 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

72%

West Brom (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.07 · 198 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.89 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.70

West Brom attack 0.84 + Tottenham defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tottenham scores more

55%

level

24%

West Brom scores more

21%

Tottenham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Kane

Tottenham · F

9.6

Match Events

12'

H. Kane↳ C. Eriksen

26'

G. McAuleyOwn goal

54'

J. McClean← C. Brunt

62'

H. Robson-Kanu← N. Chadli

64'

Jonas Olsson

64'

B. Davies← J. Vertonghen

70'

Gareth McAuley

77'

H. Kane↳ K. Walker

82'

H. Kane↳ D. Alli

83'

H. Winks← M. Dembélé

90'

Heung-Min Son← H. Kane

90'

S. Field← M. Phillips

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamWest

Overview

72%Possession28%

21Total Shots3

8Corners0

11Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots3

11On Target0

7Off Target2

3Blocked1

11Inside Box1

11Outside Box2

Passing

72%Possession28%

670Total Passes248

588Accurate Passes162

88%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1